Fact-Checking False Rape Accusations
This is a rundown posted on Reddit several years ago by a user of r/MensLib, but the original has been taken down, and I would be upset to see such comprehensive, well-sourced information be lost to the trash compactors on the detention level. I’ve updated broken links and edited for grammar and clarity.
Why We Shouldn't Fear a False Rape Epidemic.
One of the common responses to any push to change how our police and society handle rape, sexual assault and even harassment is the inescapable argument that men then would be plagued by false rape accusations. The fear is always that we crossed some line that no longer allows reasonable doubt and that a man can be sent to jail by one accusation. Everyone can dredge up a memory of at least one such story in the news.
So how common is this issue? Is it really a threat to men? How many false rape accusations are there really?
How Many False Rape Accusations Are There?
Most experts agree that false rape accusations make the total of 2-10% of the total accusations of rape. As quoted from the handbook:
A multi-site study of eight U.S. communities including 2,059 cases of sexual assault found a 7.1% of false reports (Lonsway, Archambault, & Lisak, 2009).
Here is that study if you’d like to check their methodology.
And why not add some more papers to the mix:
A 2017 Study into the FBI Database found that between 2006 to 2010, the average number of false or baseless rape accusations was 5.55%. Robbery had a higher false and baseless accusation rate of 5.76%. No public outcry about all those poor men who go to jail on false robbery charges, though. I wonder if that might have something to do with their skin color…
Now I know that 2-10% is a lot and enough to give anyone pause, considering how epidemic sexual assault is. But consider a few things:
Only about one-third of sexual assaults are reported to police. So now we’re at 2-10% of 33%.
This statistic includes assaults where no specific suspect was named, which as I will show below is a more interesting stat. The majority of false rape accusations are made against non-existent strangers, people the victims claim they can’t identify.
So how many false rape allegations lead to false arrests and convictions?
How many people falsely accused of rape have actually gone to jail?
Thankfully we found that the answer is very low.
The National Registry of Exoneration keeps track of how many innocent people have been, well, exonerated. They found that since 1989 in the United States, 52 people have been exonerated of sexual assaults they did not commit. People exonerated on false accusations of murder, for comparison, was 790 people.
The Innocence Project lists 276 exonerated of sex crimes; this is the highest number I can find.
The British Home Office did a detailed study and report on the issue of false rape accusations in 2005, and found that, of 216 falsely reported assaults, only for 126 (58%) of them was any formal complaint filed by the accuser, only 39 (18%) of them had a named suspect, and of those 39 suspects, only six were arrested - 2% of the total, so it looks like the statistical math checks out. Out of the six arrested, only two were charged, and neither was convicted.
Fact is that the majority of false rape accusations don't even name a suspect. In the context of total reported sexual assaults, this really proves how rare false rape convictions are. The vast majority of false rape accusers accuse a non-existent stranger, which means that the majority of false rape accusations are harmless to the general public because no one is accused.
When you take these studies and add them to what we already know about rape, a more complete picture forms:
1/6 women claim to have experience sexual assault, followed by a 1/3 reporting the assault to police, out of which in the worst possible case 1/10 are false. Out of those false rape accusations 9/50 name a suspect, out of false rape accusations that accuse someone 15/100 get an arrest and, out of those who are arrested for a rape they didn't do only 1/3 have charges placed against them.
So… 1/6 x 1/3 x 1/10 x 9/50 x 15/100 x 1/3 = 0.00005
Which means… the average man has a 0.005% chance of being falsely charged with rape. A five-thousandth of one percent chance.
Compare this to the fact that 6.4% of men openly admitted to committing the strictest possible definition of rape, and 23% of them admitted multiple rapes.
Why do false rape accusations happen?
Many people who fear false rape accusations claim that women in the work force will make a false accusation against a man in a higher position, or a student who is going to fail an exam will accuse a professor, or a woman who regretted sex later will accuse them of rape.
But the realities of this are completely different:
A review done by the LAPD found the most common reasons for false rape accusations were “Missed Curfews” by teenagers. The second most common? Unwanted pregnancies, again in teenagers. It turns out that 55% of false rape accusations are made in the hope of getting medical care or psychiatric medication by the very poor and destitute, which is why they don’t name a suspect - their intention is not to get someone else arrested, but to get themselves taken care of.
Also it is noted that half of false rape accusations are made by parents on behalf of their children, either pressuring the child to go to the police or accusing someone of rape without the child’s knowledge. It is also important to note that, in the very rare cases of serial false rape accusations from the same person, these accusers tend to have a history of being the legitimate victim of childhood sexual abuse.
This shows that the false accuser depicted by paranoid men and the media are not serial accusers, nor employees angling for compensation, nor college students who regret sex. Instead, it is usually either the very poor looking for free medication, teenagers trying to get out of trouble, and parents of children who make the vast majority of false rape accusations.
There is no correlation between the truth of an accusation and the age of the accuser, nor the number of sexual partners the accuser has had. Legitimate victims of sexual assault mostly lie to themselves and others to claim they were not sexually assaulted when they actually were. This denial is due to the fact that the majority of legitimate victims know their abusers personally, and either fear retaliation or cope with their trauma by denying it. I can personally attest to that.
Why didn't you include these other "studies?”
Since I am from the future, I know this will come up. People who fear an imagined false accusation "epidemic" like to point to "other studies" on these issues. What are these other "studies" and why don't I use them in my analysts? Well, because they are bad studies. Bad science. Flat out bad, or rely on a misconception of the nature of sexual assault. And there are a lot of them. Here is a selection of findings from Philip N.S. Rumney in the Cambridge Law Journal, reviewing studies of false reporting in the US, New Zealand and the UK:
| The Study | Number of False Accusations out of Cases Studied | Assessed False Reporting Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Theilade and Thompson (1986) | 1 out of 56 4 out of 39 |
1.5% 10% |
| New York Rape Squad (1974) | n/a |
2% |
| Hursch and Selkin (1974) | 10 out of 545 | 2% |
| Kelly et al. (2005) | 67 out of 2,643 | 3% ("possible" and "probable" false allegations) 22% (recorded by police as "no-crime") |
| Geis (1978) | n/a | 3-31% (estimates given by police surgeons) |
| Smith (1989) | 17 out of 447 | 3.8% |
| US Department of Justice (1997) | n/a | 8% |
| Clark and Lewis (1977) | 12 out of 116 | 10.3% |
| Harris and Grace (1999) | 53 out of 483 123 out of 483 |
10.9% ("false/malicious" claims) 25% (recorded by police as "no-crime") |
| Lea et al. (2003) | 42 out of 379 |
11% |
| HMCPSI/HMIC (2002) | 164 out of 1,379 | 11.8% |
| McCahill et al. (1979) | 218 out of 1,198 | 18.2% |
| Philadelphia police study (1968) | 74 out of 370 | 20% |
| Chambers and Millar (1983) | 44 out of 196 | 22.4% |
| Grace et al. (1992) | 80 out of 335 |
24% |
| Jordan (2004) | 68 out of 164 62 out of 164 |
41% ("false" claims) 38% (viewed by police as "possibly true/possibly false") |
| Kanin (1994) | 45 out of 109 | 41% |
| Gregory and Lees (1996) | 49 out of 109 | 45% |
| Maclean (1979) | 16 out of 34 | 47% |
| Stewart (1981) | 16 out of 18 | 90% |
As we all know, in statistics, the more the better. Any science based on studying numbers in the low 100s is… questionable. Anything under 100 is a meme. Seriously, eighteen people? Andrew Wakefield claimed Vaccines cause autism based on a sample size of twelve. When you have that small a sample size, you can say anything is possible or even probable.
These studies also expose a much larger issue when it comes to research into sexual assault.
What is “false sexual assault?”
When you look at studies the older ones tend to have… questionable views of what is and isn't sexual assault.
For example, Stewart said one of the victims was lying because:
‘‘disproved on the grounds that it was totally impossible to have removed her extremely tight undergarments from her extremely large body against her will.’’
Maclean also came to the conclusion that 47% of victims were lying if the victims didn't look "disheveled" enough or didn't have bruising. As time goes on, the number of estimated false rape accusations decrease as we evolve in our understanding of trauma and how people respond. What the police knew about trauma in sexual assault in the 1960s is much lacking compared to the modern day, making these studies wildly outdated, sexist and inaccurate, and thus they are only brought up by those more interested in pushing a sexist agenda than actual facts.
If we look at other studies like Kanin and Jordan, we discover they are working on the police definitions of “false rape reporting.” Unfortunately, that means that they consider a story false if the victim:
Failed a polygraph test (learn why the polygraph test is bullshit)
If the victim delayed reporting their rape (most rape victims do, out of trauma and fear they won’t be believed)
If the victim was “intellectually impaired” (there is an unnoticed epidemic of rape and assault against those with cognitive disabilities, one of the highest rates of sexual assault in the US, and they are almost never believed)
If the victim has signs of mental illness (see above)
If the victim was intoxicated
If the victim later withdraws the complaint (under potential pressure from the rapist and an unbelieving public)
If the victim was determined by police to be a "slut.”
These studies don't show how many false rape accusations they are. These studies show that police view most rape accusations as false, especially when coming from the populations most likely to be raped. These studies aren't evidence of a massive epidemic of false rape convictions, but an epidemic of sexist and misguided beliefs that prevent real sexual assault victims from reaching justice. As Jordan said about his own report:
While false complaints do occur, approximately three-quarters of the incidents concluded by the police to be false appeared to have been judged to some extent at least on the basis of stereotypes regarding the complainant’s behavior, attitude, demeanor or possible motive. Suspicious file comments were made by the detectives regarding a woman who laughed while being interviewed, others who were seen as ‘attention seeking,’ and some who were said to be ‘crying rape’ for revenge or guilt motives.
That's right. Seventy-five percent of false rape accusations labeled as such by police were not because they were proven false, not because they were even investigated at all, but on the gut feelings of the police. Which means we get plenty of false false rape accusations. This is statistically a much bigger issue than men being falsely accused of rape. There have been plenty of documented cases of police pressuring victims to sign false confessions claiming they made up their sexual assaults. It’s one of the major reasons only six in 1000 rapists will go to jail, while for robberies it’s 20 in 1000, and for assault and battery, it’s 33 out of 1000.
Using Fear as a Weapon
So if it’s not really a problem, why do we talk about false rape allegations all the time? It is used as a political weapon.
Though it may not seem like a huge conversation elsewhere, this issue is pushed hard among far-right conservatives and “men’s rights activists.” In fact, I decided to do my own study in the spirit of the above ridiculous studies with sample sizes of under 1000, since apparently that’s considered sufficient statistical relevance now. I went to r/MensRights, searched for "rape" and looked at the 102 top posts by users of r/MensRights on the subject. I only accepted posts of two categories: male victims of sexual assault, and stories on false rape accusations. As expected, r/MensRights had more posts about false rape accusations then male victims of rape, and posts about false rape accusations got much higher average engagement from users.
| Posts about False Rape Accusations | | Posts about Male Victims of Sexual Assault | |
|---|---|---|
| Total posts | 57 | 44 |
| Total karma (user promotion) | 285,310 | 196,844 |
As you can see, despite the fact that men have 1 in 33 in odds of being raped, that 1 in 10 rape victims is male, and as stated before, only 0.005% of false rape accusations lead to a man being arrested as stated above. MRAs post more about and care more about false rape accusations then male victims of sexual assault. Why is that? Why do we even talk about false accusations so much? I have a suspicion that many who champion this cause are arguing disingenuously.
“False accusations are rampant enough that only segregation can solve it.”
Yeaaaah... This covers harassment as well. Men have been using their fear of false rape accusations as proof that women should be "isolated". They openly brag on national television that they "won't hire more qualified women because I am too scared of a lawsuit". As stated before, most false rape accusations come from children or the homeless, and the vast majority don't name suspects, making this paranoia nothing more than a laughable attempt to defend gender segregation. If anything, men should be worried about sexual harassment from coworkers, as it is far more likely that men will be victims of sexual harassment from other men than be falsely accused of harassment themselves.
So the people who say that this is a measure that must be taken to protect men are flat out Neo-Segregationists. They do not care about false accusations. They want to use that as an excuse to treat women as second class citizens at work or push them out of the workforce entirely. Many workplaces mitigate any potential risk of harassment between employees by having a third party witness any sensitive or contentious discussion. A third party witness benefits both those who fear harassment and those who unreasonably fear false accusations of harassment and assault. Jumping to pushing women out of the workforce is straight up sawing your foot off over a hangnail.
“False rape accusers should get the same length of sentence as rapists.”
This is a common cry from those within the MRA movement. They believe these supposed accusers are getting off too easy, that they ruin countless men’s lives and only get a slap on the wrist. This shows the naive belief many men maintain - they imagine that the criminal justice system punishes rapists appropriately to their crimes. If we are going to sentence false accusers the same way that we sentence rapists, then we can expect false rape accusers to get:
That of course doesn't count the 23% of rapists (63% on college campuses) who are never caught, never convicted, and statistically each go on to rape six more women. If MRAs called for this kind of law, I can't help to feel they would be even more disappointed in the sentencing.
Also I want to quickly address the other common MRA fantasy, for those who falsely accused men of rape to be placed on Sex Offender Registry Lists. In the first place, this is improper use of these lists and dilutes their utility, and secondly… that publicly available list would be a public list of people you can rape without repercussion.
Debating extra laws and punishments for the nonexistent issue of false rape accusations merely puts more pressure on legitimate victims of sexual assault. Police currently dub the majority of rape accusations as false due to their own biases, resulting in the potential for legitimate victims of rape to be disbelieved by police and then imprisoned for years.
Conclusion
To me, this ultimately proves why these issues come up in groups like r/MensRights more often then male sexual assault. It is being used as a weapon, to try to push society back to a more regressive state. The men’s rights movement is a regressive wolf in progressive sheep’s clothing. They don't really care about victims of false allegations. What they want is to make it impossible for legitimate victims to seek justice. For Tucker Carlson and other ultra conservatives, it’s just a means to justify removing women from the workforce and putting them back “in the kitchen where they belong.” That's what this whole issue is to the far right - just a vehicle to push for extremist, regressive policy.
That's why MRA spaces as a whole under report on male victims of rape. Admitting that rape of men is a common thing only helps prove that rape in general is a very common affair, that rape is an enormous problem in our society. It would require them to stop ignoring and downplaying it.
So remember this TL;DR when you hear about false rape accusations:
TL;DR
For both genders, you are far more likely to be raped then falsely accused of rape.
The estimated number of false rape accusations is around 2-10% at the highest.
Only 18% of false rape accusations actually accuse someone, and of that, only 0.9% of false rape accusations ended up in court, none of which resulted in convictions.
The vast majority of false rape accusations are made by the homeless, teenagers, or parents on behalf of children.
55% of false rape accusations are made in hopes of getting free medical treatment, not punishing the accused. The next largest category is teenagers trying to avoid punishment.
Serial accusations and people accusing others to get a promotion or to cover for a failure almost never happens. The individuals who do this tend to have a clear-cut history of other forms of fraud, and are usually legitimate victims of childhood sexual assault.
Data based on decades-old reporting of assaults, sexual promiscuity and delayed reporting are not indicative of a false rape accusation.
Older studies on the issue tend to be unreliable due to lack of understanding from law enforcement and medical staff about how victims process trauma.
Police tend to accuse people of making false accusations far more often than statistically reasonable, due to use of pseudoscience like the polygraph, and often due to their own sexist beliefs.
It is exponentially more likely that police will dismiss a real victim of sexual assault as false than convict someone falsely accused of sexual assault.
The whole issue of false accusations has been hijacked by reactionaries as a vehicle to push for infringement of women’s rights. As the data shows, the non-issue of rape accusations and the narrative spread on the internet just doesn't hold up.
